Tuesday, February 26, 2013

start music

A slap in the face of government on spectrum auctions.Everybody knew that our corporates can do business only if there is a opportunity to commit any fraud. If you ask them to pay the right spectrum price they won't.

This is a start. Many more bad news in the offing. I will write during the weekend

Equity market is crashing.

Home prices will follow.

Watch this space.

Thursday, February 21, 2013

latest news which interests me

1. Federal reserve contemplating moves to end QE ( Which means easy money which bridges India deficit   will stop)

2.  Indian employees cannot expect more than 10% hike as per a report. ( even though the hike is not expected line, most of them are not worried as their RE investment gives 30% every year, atleast on paper, I don't see anybody sold expect a select few)

Friday, February 15, 2013

Open letter to Chidambaram

Dear Mr.Chidambaram,

You have the image of an intellectual in the country. That is true to some extent. But have you ever wondered why still you are not having a decent support base among the masses in your native state. You very well knew that you cannot win any election in Tamil nadu without the support of one of the Dravidian parties. Even with that support, last time you won under dubious circumstances. You know the reason? You may not know...I will tell you...The reason is PEOPLE DO NOT THINK YOU ARE DEPENDABLE, TRUSTWORTHY and unfortunately THEY THINK YOU ARE NOT HONEST. Exactly for that reason, I am quite sure you will lose in the coming elections.

People are not wrong in their assumptions. Your actions seems to be that you are always working for corporates and you know the values of Indian corporates. With cronies they can never survive. Basically we are a country who sell natural resources to foreigners to make a living. Let us see your recent actions

1. When you assumed office last year, you started right on target by saying builders have to reduce prices to keep the economy going. Suddenly you stopped talking about that. After few months you started singing exactly opposite tune by saying people should start buy from these blood sucking builders by 'whatever prices they quote'.  Even though you do not tell this in exact words, you actions of asking banks to bail out the builders is telling exactly that. Why do you want to bail out the builders? Do they deserve it?

2. When countries like china and other ASEAN countries got cheap money due to FED, they built infrastructure, bridges etc. What have we done? We have built apartments that too sub standard ones. Dont you see most of the money we got is converted into illiquid and unproductive apartment complexes.

3. Now you are after the companies and individuals to collect the taxes.  I did not see a co-ordinated effort from the IT department against the builders? Do you know it is impossible to buy an apartment without any black money? Is it not a shame?

4. It shocked the honest people to see that a few handful of individual cases in Bangalore resulted in huge amount of crores of unaccounted money. ( Case of builder - owner agreement).  What about others?

5. When you rob the savers of the country to pay the blood sucking corporates, what is your heart is telling? When you put terrible pressure on reserve bank to cut rates( it is actually doing terrible injustice to the people who live dependent on bank interest) what do you think?

6. Do you think the consumption slowdown we face now is normal? No sir. It is abnormal.


Open Letter to Mr.Chidambaram and Dr.Subbarao -2

Dear Dr.Subbarao

Even though you are making right noises, we are not seeing the equivalent actions in the monetary policy or even the advisory notes from RBI is not hitting the right spots. When you talk about huge import bill due to gold, I wonder what is  RBI view about the speculation in land?

Do you know indirectly the land speculation is one of the huge causes for inflation. I know many people who thinks food or consumer inflation is OK, so long as their investments in land fetching 30% of return every year. If you apply the logic in the opposite side, the inflation expectation is kept artificially high because of land speculation. Another point is the black money involved in the real estate business.

Doing lip service in the inflation front for the majority population is not really helping them. Sometimes it appears to me like crocodile tears.

  • What have we done for the thousands of ordinary folks dependent on the bank interest to lead a peaceful retirement life?
  • To make matters much worse, we are planning to give market linked returns to all the future pensioners.

I think since you joined before the new pension scheme you are not worried about the future generations. You know the real consumer inflation is 12%+ for the past few years. And now you are waiting for sub 7% or 6% even for a month to cut rates. Is it not ironic?

You said majority % of people have no voice or forum to raise the concern. That is true. But what is the action you have taken? Actually you should have raised rates and haven't done so.

Now you are acting only because the CAD is dangerously poising and if all the hot money goes out you know what would happen. What stops you from talking against the land speculation happening in India with active involvement with politicians, builders and bankers?

Wednesday, February 13, 2013

Open letter to Chidambaram & Dr.Subbarao - Part 1

Respected Sirs,

This letter is addressed to you because you have the authority to take decisions on many issues of serious nature facing our country. We all know our economy is in deeper troubles than what we are seeing in the media. 
  • We are dependent on FII money (money comes in to share market for trading - I do not want to tell this is investment) to pay our daily bills. 
  • Our industrial output is in -negatve zone for the past few months
  • The car sales (leading indicator for money flow) is in -ve zone for the past few months
  • Regarding current account deficit the lesser said is better. Good economists say the situation is similar to 1991(Good economists not like Ahluwalia type)
  • The inflation is in double digit - I consider CPI as the true indicator and anybody who talkes about WPI is a cheat in my opinion as WPI is not considering common man like CPI. I do not have slightest of respect to a man who disagrees with this view. I hope you agree
  • We are desperately raising tax bills to companies like shell and nokia and thus scaring away the investors from abroad on one hand and on other hand we are talking about FDI.
  • Banks are bleeding and at this rate our banks will run out of capital in 2 years time.  The novel methodology of CDR nowhere in the world is eating our banking system and the PSU chief just to save their skin are endlessly postponing the loan collection which the basic of banking.
  •  Last heard bankers realise that kingfisher is gone  case. Atleast this will be eye opener for them.king fisher also was a case of CDR, conversion to dept to equity, etc
  • The findings about jobless growth witnessed in the country in nothing but a shame to the decision makers.
  • The habit of shooting the messenger ( CSO) will not help. It looks very childish.
  • The gold bill shows our monetary policy fails terribly.
I can write 100 more issues like this where we are terribly going wrong. But in spite of all this, we are busy cutting interest rates which is opposite to common wisdom. I just do not understand the logic behind this step.

Do you think Zimbabwe like situation will never come to India?  Are we such a blessed country?

Don't you see a possibility of a civil war in our country if couple of things goes against us. It can be some natural events like a prolonged monsoon failure.

My solution


When I say our monetary policy failed, you think I refer to the 'high interest rate policy' as shouted by media and corporates. No. My view is that we haven't raised the interest rates enough to make the policy effective. From the moment you started raising the interest rates back, the corporate mafia ( I do not want to refer them as lobby) raised hue and cry and you are not allowed to raise rates freely. You raised rates at 0.25 percent per quarter and the system happily accepted and digested and it did not provide the expected cooling effect to the overheated economy.

In the process you have done a terrible injustice to the real savers of the economy and now you are paying the price in high import bill for gold and very low savings rates in GDP. Remember we scuttled all the global economic crisis only because we were savings based economy.

We convinced ourselves by attributing different reasons for high inflation on which some are laughable and inhuman.

When we talk about supply side constraints continuously that is laughable. Because we had those 'supply side' constraints even when our inflation was at 3-5% also.

When we talk about 'rural folks eating more' that is cruel because of obvious reasons.

When reserve bank talks about the speculation in gold, I really wonder what is the RBI's view on speculation on land?

Tuesday, February 12, 2013

Today's special - Jobless growth

India has achieved another rare distinction as an arm under PMEAC finds that the high growth India is witnessing is actually achieved without the corresponding growth in the number of new jobs. This is very new and actually not achieved anywhere else in the world. This is a new record. Chidambaram, Manmohan Singh etc can be proud.

For the sceptics we suggest still we have huge openings in real estate broking business as it seems that is the only business thriving in the country with the active support of Government, RBI, Public Sector banks and Corporates.

1.  After completing high schools students straight away join to street corner real estate agent to finish training
2.  Every year 20% appreciation will be there and so the mango people to buy assets, so it is permanent job
3. The margin is huge and can make easy money and unaccounted too

Sunday, February 10, 2013

My Budget wishlist 2012

Mr. P. Chidambaram is going to present budget this year and I see the following announcements

1.  Diesel prices will be raised by 20 Rs per Litre and the all the money collected will be given to the struggling car makers who are living in below poverty line.

2.  Tax concession for housing loan will be increased to enable more sales in housing market so that the poorest of the poor such as housing brokers and the builders to eat at least square meal per day.

3.  Interest rates such as Repo rate will be reduced by 5% and the CRR will be abolished in order to bring out the money deposited wastely in banks by the super rich people of India. The poor corporates who are dying without money will be benefitted.

4. Steps will be taken to increase the real estate prices  to another 50% so that the common lazy man of India will work hard to earn more money to realise his dream of having own house. This decision is taken in the best interests of common man so that he works hard.

5. A task force will be set up to find  the other natural resources unsold in the country so that the next budget deficit can be funded.

               (to be continued)

Tuesday, February 5, 2013

gonna to celebrate :)

Mr. Chidambaram has exhausted all his options and now has only empty promises to offer in his forthcoming budget.

The signs are peaking and the crash is imminent.

  • Banks are bleeding          
  • Real estate is struggling
  • Job growth is stalling
  • Car sales are tumbling
  • Rupee is crashing
  • Inflation is raising
  • Money flow is stalled totally

All the above signs were positive some time back and now not all favorable  These are perfect recipe for disaster. The people who expects Chidambaram to bring some magic miracle solution for all these problems in the budget speech will be in for rude shock.  Indian economy will pay for its master's sins and this will become very ugly.

I suggested all my friends and relatives to liquidate their investments in shares and real estate. I don't know about other investment vehicles. Better be in cash.

The start will be a crash in share market followed by real estate. Then bad news will follow. Banks will start reporting more ugly set of numbers from March 2013.

Monday, February 4, 2013

RBI becoming laughing stock

RBI wants to make right noises but their actions are not matching the words.

The talk tough and do things which their political bosses and corporate mafia's wanted. Now another shocking revelation comes out that the savings rate will touch all time low this year. And still shamelessly we are talking about screwing the real saver by lowering the rates.

RBI needs to introspect.

Friday, February 1, 2013

We are fortunate to live in the era of SBI chief Pratib Chaudhuri

Before rate cut SBI chief was telling to all and sundry about his plans to pass it on the benefits to Aam Aadmi of India. In reality his Aam Aadmi's are none other than real estate sharks. Simple logic of 'you save my ass and in return I will save your ass' concept. The interesting news is that after RBI cut 0.25 % in Repo, SBI cuts 0.05% in base rate.So according to this genius banker, RBI has to cut repo rate by 5% to as low as 2.75, so that we will get 1% reduction in his bank's lending rate. Really I feel proud that I live in the era of SBI chief Pratib Chaudhuri.