Sunday, January 8, 2012

Weekly Analysis of Nifty - Infy and IIP

The week gone by shows how the cartel of stock markets operate in tandem to loot from retail investors world over. All markets moved in tandem without any major fall inspite of euro weakness.

Inspite of Euro collapsing well below 1.30 up to 1.1.2697 equity markets hold fort. Dollar index crosses 81.5 comfortably but Rupee appreciates below 53 levels. In short term this kind of manipulation works but over the period of time these things cannot be sustained. But can we stay short until market returns to sanity?

Two important news items expected this week. IIP data and Infosys results. IIP data is expected to be positive after a dismal -ve data last time. Also due to Rupee weakness Infy is expected to post a spectacular results. so on paper the setup looks great for a rally. Market players are expecting a rally up to 4900 at least.
Also the market manipulators keep up their pressure on RBI to cut the interest rates.

FII data mostly points towards upsides. There are conspiracy theories about FII derivative data. From the start of the series they are long in 56000 contracts with 1700 Crores OI addition. But they net bought only less than 50 Crores. How to intrepret this? I will try my best and come with a analysis soon.

No new shorts. Wait for 4675 and below or 4850 and above for new shorts. I am still hoping for a crash in January end or February due to europe issues. The governments are struggling to find buyers for bonds which is evident from the news emanating from euro zone. Euro value is tripping. If they struggle to sell 10 Billion euro bonds how come they are going to sell 200 Billion bonds? Let us wait and see. No wrong if you are not in short but a strict no no to longs.

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